Accountability Ledger methodology
Last updated: July 17, 2026. Version 1.2.
CryptoWatch attaches a public accountability record to its calls. This document explains exactly how calls are defined, resolved, amended, and independently verified.
1. What is a call?
A call is emitted whenever any of these happen:
| Trigger | Call type | Horizon | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| User pins a Desk setup or no-trade observation | desk_setup | T+1d | BTC spot |
| Truth Engine verdict changes | truth_engine_verdict | Not graded | Hash-chain evidence only |
| CW Risk band changes | cw_risk_verdict | Not graded | Hash-chain evidence only |
| Historical Manipulation Shield HIGH/CRITICAL transition (producer retired 2026-07-15) | manipulation_shield_flag | Not graded | Hash-chain evidence only |
Not calls: tooltips, educational content, and raw data panels (price, volume, holder counts). Historical Shield rows remain immutable, queryable, and hash-verifiable. They are not directional bets, are not graded HIT/MISS, and no new Shield calls are produced.
2. Resolution rules
Only call types explicitly registered with the automated resolver are graded. Today that is desk_setup; evidence-only verdicts and historical Shield rows are intentionally excluded. Desk path grading runs continuously, and the ledger overview resolver runs nightly at 00:05 UTC. No human intervention.
- Desk track record: LONG/SHORT setups are graded first-touch-wins against their declared stop and take-profit levels. If both touch in one candle, the stop wins. A setup that reaches its validity deadline without either is EXPIRED.
- Desk no-trade: retained as an observation and marked EXPIRED at its validity deadline; it is not reclassified as a directional call.
- Ledger overview: the separate alpha resolver currently grades only BTC pins with historical BTC benchmark coverage. It uses alpha versus BTC with a ±1 percentage-point NEUTRAL band. Non-BTC pins remain unresolved until token-specific historical prices are wired.
Note: "Neutral" counts as a miss for our public hit-rate computation. Only HITs fill the numerator. This is deliberately conservative.
3. The Macro Regime Classifier
Every call is stamped with the macro-data regime at the time it was made. We do not judge a long call made in a bull market the same as one made during a liquidity crisis.
The classifier deterministically scores the US 10Y Yield, DXY, VIX, M2 YoY, and High Yield Spread into three bands: TAILWIND, NEUTRAL, or HOSTILE. The exact inputs are logged into the hash-chain prior to the call.
4. Immutability and Hash-Chaining
Once a call is written to the ledger, it cannot be edited. It is appended with a cryptographic hash connecting it to the previous row:
row_hash = sha256(canonical_json(row_without_hashes) + prev_row_hash)
Every night at 00:30 UTC, we compute the ultimate chain_tip_hash and broadcast it as a 0-value memo transaction to the Base blockchain. This makes the ledger mechanically verifiable and impossible to retroactively alter.
2026-07-17: Version 1.2 aligned the methodology with the dedicated Bitcoin State page, five-decision Observatory, and current public verification routes.
2026-07-15: Version 1.1 reconciled the page with the live resolver. Shield/Hunter producers are retired; historical Shield rows remain verifiable but are not graded.
2026-04-23: Version 1.0 published. Initial spec launch.