The single thing to look at first. A 4-layer synthesis of every other indicator on the dashboard, collapsed into one number and one verdict. Score range −24 to +24.
The 4 layers (research basis: April 2026 next-gen indicator framework):
L1 Macro Regime — is the environment right for BTC to move? (M2, DXY, BTC-SPX correlation)
L2 Cycle Position — where in the 4-year cycle? (AVIV, Halving regime, Bottom Proximity)
L3 On-Chain Stress — approaching capitulation? (Tier 1 + LTH/STH MVRV + Coinbase Premium)
L4 Execution Timing — is now the moment? (Funding, OI/Mcap, DVOL, IV term, skew, liquidations)
Each indicator contributes −2 to +2. Verdict bands: STRONG SELL < −16, SELL −16..−8, MILD SELL −8..−2, WAIT −2..+2, MILD BUY +2..+8, BUY +8..+16, STRONG BUY > +16.
How to use: the gauge is the headline. The breakdown table shows which indicators are pulling the score in which direction — that's where you go to challenge the verdict before acting.
Glassnode's 7-category 2-axis framework. Each category is scored on Level (Low / Moderate / High) and Direction (Rising / Declining / Flat) independently. Level positions each metric against its own 2-year 20/80 percentile band — the thresholds auto-calibrate as the market matures, so a reading of "High" in 2026 means something comparable to "High" in 2022. Direction is the 7-day week-over-week delta.
Why both axes: the single-number composite gauge above answers "should I act?" The scorecard answers "why is the market in this state?" A BUY verdict with most categories Low/Rising is far more convicted than the same verdict with categories spread across High/Declining.
Categories: Spot (price momentum + exchange flow) · Futures (funding, OI, leverage) · Options (skew, IV, vol risk premium) · ETF (Glassnode Purpose proxy) · Fundamental (addresses, transfers, hash) · Capital Flows (realized cap change, hot capital share, LTH supply) · P&L States (supply in profit, NUPL, realized P&L ratio).
How to read it: look for asymmetry. All categories Low/Rising = constructive base. All categories High/Declining = distribution. Mixed = transitional. Fundamental disagreeing with Spot is the classic divergence pattern (price up, base layer cooling = fragile rally).
The first filter the legacy on-chain toolkit was missing. Per the next-gen indicator framework: any indicator that ignores macro is structurally incomplete post-2020. BTC moves in M2's direction 83% of the time on a 12-month basis (Lyn Alden, Sep 2024). Fed rate hikes in 2022 directly drained liquidity from BTC and broke the 200W MA support that had held in every prior cycle.
M2 YoY (US): rolling year-over-year change in US M2 money supply. >3% rising = RISK-ON, 0–3% = neutral, <0% = RISK-OFF, <−2% = STRONG RISK-OFF. Source: FRED M2SL (free, monthly).
DXY 3m: US Dollar Index 3-month % change. Rising DXY = dollar scarcity = risk-off. Falling = liquidity expansion = risk-on. Note: post-ETF the DXY relationship has weakened (r² 0.70 → 0.45) — never use alone, always cross-reference with M2.
BTC-SPX 30d correlation: regime detector. >0.6 = BTC behaves as risk asset, macro dominates. 0.3–0.6 = mixed. <0.3 = BTC decoupled, on-chain dominates. <0 = safe haven / gold-like. This card doesn't push the gauge directionally — it tells you which other layers should dominate your read.
How to use: if all 3 cards align RISK-ON, the macro environment is BTC-friendly and you can lean into Tier 1/2 confluence signals. If macro is RISK-OFF, even a strong on-chain confluence may struggle against tightening liquidity (see 2022 cycle).
Real-time institutional demand layer. Two complementary views of how aggressively US institutional money is moving BTC right now.
IBIT (BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust) — the largest US spot ETF since the January 2024 launch. We track USD turnover (volume × close price) and compare today vs the 30-day SMA. Activity multiplier >1.5× = surge, <0.5× = lull. Note: this is a turnover/activity proxy, not exact net flows. Exact daily net flows require paid Farside or SoSoValue subscriptions whose endpoints block non-residential IPs. Source: Yahoo Finance, free.
Coinbase Premium Index — live spread between Coinbase Pro (BTC-USD, US institutional venue) and Binance (BTC-USDT, global retail). Sustained >0.10% = institutional accumulation (US buyers paying premium), near-zero = neutral, sustained negative = retail/offshore dominance or institutional exit. Post-ETF this is the single best real-time proxy for ETF arbitrage flows because Coinbase is the custodian for most US spot ETFs. Refreshed every 5 minutes.
How to use: when both cards are bullish (IBIT activity surging + premium positive), institutional bid is strong — lean into Tier 1/2 confluence. When both bearish (low activity + negative premium), institutional flow is exiting — be cautious.
Single consolidated answer to "is money flowing INTO or OUT OF crypto right now?" Every other panel in this dashboard tracks either positions (what holders are doing) or prices (how markets are valuing things). This panel tracks actual dollar flow at the system boundary.
What counts as a dollar flow (in the composite):
What does NOT count (shown as context below, not in composite):
How to read the composite: positive = net new dollars entering crypto (risk-on pipeline). Negative = net dollars leaving (risk-off / profit-taking). Multi-billion-dollar flows over 7d = strong conviction regime. Magnitudes below $500M/week are in the noise.
LTH (Long-Term Holder) = wallets holding BTC for >155 days. Historically the smartest single cohort to track. Their behavior is mechanically contrarian — they accumulate during fear and distribute during euphoria. This panel classifies their current phase and tracks net position change across multiple horizons.
The 6 phases (classified daily):
How to read Net Position Change: positive = cohort GROWING (more new STH coins aging into LTH than LTH coins being sold) = net accumulation. Negative = cohort SHRINKING = net distribution. Threshold: 10K BTC/30d to separate real behavior from noise.
How to read LTH SOPR: average profit/loss ratio of spent coins from the LTH cohort. <1.0 = LTH coins being spent at a loss (capitulation). >1.0 = at profit (taking gains). >1.5 = aggressive profit taking (top warning). <0.8 = deep capitulation (bottom signal).
How to use: when LTH phase is Accumulation (either kind) and Tier 1/2 confluence is present → highest conviction bull setup. When phase is Euphoric Distribution + composite gauge >8 → highest conviction bear setup. Contradiction between LTH phase and composite gauge = divergence worth investigating.
| Date | Event | 30d Δ | SOPR | Phase |
|---|
Three jobs this panel does: (1) risk management — tells you if you're doubled up on the same trade; (2) regime detection — auto-classifies current market from VIX + BTC/SPX; (3) one actionable signal — DXY 3-month trend, the only correlation-based forward-return predictor that survived backtest (86% WR when DXY falls >3% over 3 months, n=442).
The tiers:
Column legend: 30d / 90d rolling Pearson correlation on daily returns. Δ arrow = week-over-week corr trend. Values grayed out when p > 0.05 (statistically insignificant — ignore them).
Backtest findings embedded:
How to use: start with the hero — if DXY is triggered, size up BTC. Check the regime detector — if VIX <18, you're in risk-on mode. Scan the crypto tier — if you hold BTC + ETH + SOL, recognize they're the same position. Ignore grayed-out (noise) rows entirely.
Where institutional capital is rotating inside the crypto ecosystem right now. The old "BTC → ETH → alts → memes" sequence is dead. In 2026 capital flows across 5 parallel zones, and tokenized RWAs (Zone 1) are a permanent new competitor for institutional dollars that didn't exist pre-2024.
Fill % = zone activation level. Each zone has a formula: Z1 = combined dry powder vs $400B reference, Z2 = BTC price proximity to TMM, Z3 = ETH/BTC ratio position, Z4 = altseason index / 60, Z5 = both altseason and F&G above 50.
Hero verdict shows which zone is currently absorbing the marginal institutional dollar. Rotation unlocks are the 4 sequential triggers (macro pivot → BTC regime shift → large cap rotation → full altseason) that must fire before capital reaches Z5. 30d capital allocation is the monthly flow into each destination from parquet-cached feeds.
How to use: glance at the hero for current active zone. Scan the 5 horizontal bars to see where money is stacked vs drained. Read the stepper to know which unlock is next and what's blocking it. The bottom callout names the single next thing to watch.
Head-to-head comparison of the 3 orthogonal smart-money cohorts. Most dashboards show each cohort in isolation. This panel answers the one question they don't: do the 3 lenses agree right now?
The 3 cohorts:
Conviction levels:
How to use this: when conviction is HIGHEST and direction is bull → highest-probability accumulation setup. When HIGHEST and direction is bear → highest-probability distribution/top-risk setup. When MEDIUM, treat the odd-cohort as the key variable to monitor for flip. When LOW, wait for resolution — the panel is literally telling you "no clear direction yet."
What this panel doesn't do: predict price direction. It tells you what the three smart-money cohorts are doing RIGHT NOW. Cohorts can be wrong. But when all three agree, they're much less wrong than any single lens alone.
Nansen Smart Money. Aggregate holdings of wallets that Nansen labels as Smart Traders and Funds — addresses selected by historical PnL track record across 6 time frames (30D/90D/180D/All-Time). This is not a competition leaderboard (we previously removed Senpi Arena from here because Arena ranks people playing a ROI game, not wallets that move markets). Nansen's cohort is a professionally curated list of profitable on-chain wallets.
Stable rotation: Smart Money's stablecoin allocation and its 24h weighted delta. When stables are dropping >1% in 24h, Smart Money is deploying cash into risk (bullish). Rising >1% = derisking into stables (bearish).
Top accumulation/distribution: the tokens with the biggest 24h balance changes across all Smart Money wallets. High-signal rotation tell — if the top accumulation row is a L1 or a new narrative, that's where capital is moving today.
Flow Lens (BTC/ETH/SOL): per-asset 24h net flows decomposed by holder cohort — exchange (distribution/accumulation proxy), fresh wallets (new capital), top-PnL traders (profit taking), smart traders. When exchange flow is strongly negative AND fresh is strongly positive, that's the cleanest "coins moving from traders to new holders" pattern.
HL perps feed: recent Smart Money trades on Hyperliquid — the real ones, by trader address, not a competition arena. Watch for repeated same-side trades on the same token for conviction reads.
Refresh: all 4 data sources refresh once per daily pipeline run (08:05 WIB). 5 Nansen API calls per run.
| Token | 24h | Balance |
|---|
| Token | 24h | Balance |
|---|
Detects market-reversal traps by cross-layer divergence. Whenever price moves one direction but orthogonal signals (Smart Money, exchange flows, sentiment, funding, capital flows, institutional flows) disagree, that's a trap signature. This panel lists the active divergences with full evidence — no opaque scoring, just transparent multi-source conflict detection.
Flag types:
How to read: each flag requires 3+ orthogonal conditions agreeing before firing. Severity (low/medium/high) scales with how many conditions are present. The evidence bullets show WHICH signals fired — read them and decide whether you trust each one for your specific trade. When no flag is active, it means price and signals are aligned — the move is "clean," not a fakeout.
Caveats: these are 7-day-horizon signals based on daily data. Not for intraday scalping. Multi-source divergence increases probability of reversal but never guarantees it. Use as a "conflict checker" alongside the Composite Signal and Tier 1/2 panels above — not as a standalone decision.
Zero false-positive valuation confluence — four BTC on-chain metrics (MVRV Ratio, NUPL, Puell Multiple, Supply-in-Profit) that historically fire together only at cycle bottoms. In 3 backtested cycles (2015, 2018, 2022), all 4 firing simultaneously produced zero false positives.
How to read: count of triggered metrics is the headline. Each card shows the raw value and the trigger threshold.
How to act: 0–2 of 4 → not a bottom, ignore. 3 of 4 → accumulate aggressively, strong confluence. 4 of 4 → maximum conviction, historically the best buy signal in BTC.
Pair with Post-Halving Regime for timing — a 3/4 trigger inside days 900–1100 is worth far more than the same trigger in any other window.
| Indicator | Trigger | 2015 | 2018 | 2022 | 2026 est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Ratio | < 1.0 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.76 | ~0.82 |
| NUPL (full) | < -0.15 | -0.56 | -0.42 | -0.29 | ~-0.15 to -0.20 |
| Puell Multiple | < 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.45 | ~0.40–0.50 |
| Supply in Profit | < 45% | ~37% | 41.0% | 44.5% | ~45–47% |
Each cycle bottoms at less extreme readings as the market matures (post-ETF institutional bid + LTH base growing). Don't wait for 2015-era values — the 2026 bottom will land at shallower levels.
Confirming layer for Tier 1 — five indicators drawn from a different measurement axis than valuation: holder behavior, miner stress, and whale flows. LTH SOPR, STH NUPL, Price vs Realized Price (14d sustained), Hash Ribbons, Whale accumulation.
How to read: this is confluence weight, not a standalone trigger. Tier 2 strengthens Tier 1 rather than firing on its own — the point is to cross-check valuation extremes against behavior extremes from the same bottom.
How to act: 3 of 5 → meaningful confirmation when paired with Tier 1. 4 of 5 → late-cycle capitulation profile across on-chain, miner, and whale behavior. 5 of 5 → full confluence, historically coincides with major cycle bottoms (2015, 2018, 2022).
Why orthogonality matters: if Tier 1 and Tier 2 were the same signal in disguise, agreement wouldn't add conviction. They measure different things — valuation vs. behavior — so when both agree the base rate is much higher than either alone.
The next-gen framework's #1 execution-layer signals. Built from the free Deribit public API, refreshed every 5 minutes. These are the most reliable derivatives bottom/top signals per the paper — they front-run on-chain confluence by days.
DVOL (Deribit Volatility Index) — implied volatility for at-the-money BTC options. Below 40% while BTC is at/near ATH = blow-off top warning (market not pricing tail risk). High DVOL during a drawdown = panic, often near a bottom. We show the latest value plus where it sits in its 30-day range.
IV Term Structure shape — relationship between near-dated and longer-dated implied vol. Backwardation (near IV > far IV) = panic / capitulation, BUY signal. Steep contango with low absolute IV = blow-off top warning. Normal contango = healthy bull market.
25-Delta Skew (proxy) — IV difference between 5%-OTM call and 5%-OTM put on the front-month expiry. Positive = market paying for upside (bullish), negative = market paying for downside (bearish hedging). >+10 = extreme bullish (potential local top), <−15 = extreme fear (bottom signal).
How to use: options are the EARLIEST signal — they front-run cycle confluence. When DVOL collapses to 30d lows while BTC trends down, fear is exhausted (often days before bottom). When skew flips deeply negative without a price reason, that's smart-money hedging.
Where price gets magnetized when leverage flushes. Per the next-gen indicator framework: large liquidation clusters above price = short squeeze magnets, large clusters below = long cascade targets. Market makers often push price toward these clusters because the resulting forced flow is profitable.
How it's computed: Total open interest in BTC perp futures (Hyperliquid + Binance, free public APIs) split by current top-trader long/short ratio (Binance), then distributed across standard leverage tiers (5x / 10x / 20x / 50x / 100x) using a typical leverage allocation. We don't have per-position data without paid CoinGlass / Hyblock subscriptions, so the cluster sizes are estimates, not measured. The liquidation price levels are exact (computed from leverage formula).
Dealer pin: the option strike with the largest open interest within ±5% of current spot. Per the paper, dealer gamma forces near large options expiries can be 13× larger than daily ETF flows. Price tends to gravitate toward the max-pain pin into expiry.
How to use:
• Before a long entry → identify the nearest large long-liquidation cluster below as your stop zone (not just a technical level).
• At potential tops → if the largest liquidation cluster is directly above current price, market makers will likely push through it to liquidate shorts.
• Watch the dealer pin → when price is significantly above pin into expiry, expect downward gravity. Below pin → upward pull.
Canonical Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Alternative.me methodology, sourced via Surf). 0–100 scale aggregating volatility, market momentum, social media, surveys, dominance, and Google trends into one number.
How to read: 0–24 Extreme Fear · 25–49 Fear · 50 Neutral · 51–74 Greed · 75–100 Extreme Greed. Historically a contrarian indicator — readings below 25 have marked cycle bottoms (March 2020, June 2022, November 2022 FTX), readings above 85 have marked local tops.
How to use: combine with direction (rising from extreme fear = early accumulation signal; falling from extreme greed = early distribution signal). The 7d and 30d deltas shown here capture that velocity. A single low reading isn't enough — look for sustained multi-week extreme readings for cycle-turn conviction.
Why a separate panel from Sentiment: the Sentiment panel next to this one shows X/Twitter mood from Grok. F&G is the aggregated canonical index. When they agree, conviction is high. When they diverge (e.g., extreme fear here but neutral X mood), something in the composite is driving it that social isn't catching — usually volatility or the dominance component.
Evidence-based cycle phase — composite 0–100 score from BTC on-chain valuation (MVRV, NUPL, Puell, Supply-in-profit, realized-price bands). Placed on the classic 4-phase wheel: Capitulation → Accumulation → Markup → Distribution.
How to read: the needle is the current score; the faint ghost marker shows where it sat 30 days ago — the direction tells you if the cycle is progressing forward (normal) or stalling / reversing. Bottom-right of the bar is the best risk/reward zone (late accumulation → early markup).
Not the same as Post-Halving Regime. This panel is data-driven; Post-Halving Regime is time-driven. When both agree on the same phase, conviction is highest. When they disagree, the disagreement itself is a signal — check the drivers in the signals ▾ panel.
Live BTC price chart with the full cycle-level stack overlaid: Realized Price (cyan), LTH Realized Price (green floor), STH Cost Basis (rose ceiling), True Market Mean (white dashed), 200-Week MA (purple). All levels are computed live — RP from Glassnode, 200WMA from HL daily candles, LTH/STH/TMM from the on-chain pipeline.
DCA zone shading: the 5 accumulation zones (A→E) are drawn as semi-transparent horizontal bands anchored to live RP × the backtested multipliers (0.70 / 0.88 / 1.00 / 1.11 / 1.25 / 1.33). They auto-rescale as RP moves.
How to read: when price enters a shaded zone, that's the trigger to deploy the DCA allocation for that zone. When price closes below RP for > 14 days, the Tier 2 "Price vs RP" signal fires.
Data source: Binance public REST (candlesticks) + glassnode-signals pipeline (overlay levels).
Bear Market Value Zone (BMVZ) — the price band between Realized Price (the network's aggregate cost basis, the floor) and the True Market Mean (cointime-economics value anchor, the ceiling). BTC spends most of its accumulation and redistribution time inside this zone. Price below RP = capitulation. Price above TMM = value zone exited, confirmation of the next expansion.
TMM is derived live from price ÷ AVIV ratio. The previous version of this terminal used a hardcoded 1.44 × RP multiplier for TMM; that heuristic has been replaced.
LTH Cooldown Tracker — two bars marking when long-term-holder capitulation has cooled enough to confirm a bottom: (1) total Realized Loss 30d SMA needs to drop under M/day (total-loss proxy — Glassnode does not expose LTH-specific flow directly), and (2) LTH supply in loss needs to drop under 1M BTC. Both must cool before a confirmed base formation.
How to read: the yellow dot on the BMVZ bar shows current price. The red bars on the cooldown rows shrink as capitulation cools; when a bar crosses the cyan threshold line and turns green, that pillar is cooled.
Pre-committed accumulation ladder — five price zones (A → E) with fixed allocation percentages, designed so you know exactly what to do at every price level before emotion kicks in. Scaling in across zones outperforms lump-sum historically (backtested 2018 + 2022 bottoms).
Zones are computed live from the Glassnode aggregate Realized Price (currently shown in the panel head). Multipliers: A = RP × 1.25–1.33, B = 1.11–1.25, C = 1.00–1.11 (RP zone), D = 0.88–1.00 (shallow breach), E = 0.70–0.88 (deep breach). Nothing is hardcoded to a price — the ranges auto-rescale as RP moves each day.
How to read: the pill at the top shows which zone BTC is currently in (or "above zones" / "below all zones"). The note under the ladder shows live Zero-FP Tier 1 count and the zone range where full confluence historically fires.
How to use: when price enters a zone, deploy that zone's allocation once — don't chase within-zone wiggles. If Tier 1 + Tier 2 confluence fires inside Zone C or D, increase the allocation by 50% (front-load the bottom). Never deploy all zones — keep Zone E in reserve for a black-swan breach.
For the probability distribution of where the bottom will actually land, see the Scenario Analysis panel below — its rows are also live-computed from current drawdown and bottom proximity.
Outcome distribution for the current cycle bottom — four scenarios (A–D). Everything below is computed live from Glassnode realized price, current drawdown, and Tier 1 trigger count. Price ranges are anchored to the live Realized Price; probabilities shift with the data. No paper snapshot values.
Bottom ranges: A = ≥RP (no breach), B = RP × 0.88–1.00 (shallow breach), C = RP × 0.70–0.88 (deep breach), D = < RP × 0.70 (black swan).
Probability model: starts from a drawdown-gradient baseline (deeper drawdown → more weight on deeper scenarios), then tilted by live bottom_proximity score and Tier 1 trigger count. Always sums to 100%.
How to use: cross-check the DCA ladder against the current base case (highest probability row). Use Scenario D to size how much reserve you keep — never zero.
| Scenario | Prob | Bottom | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| waiting for realized price… | |||
Market-wide bottom check across BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE. Four price-technical inputs per coin: current price, drawdown from ATH, weekly RSI, and distance from the 200-week moving average. A zone badge (touching / breach / deep breach) summarizes each coin's position vs its 200W MA.
Why the 200W MA: it's BTC's most durable long-cycle support — historically BTC has only touched or breached it at macro bottoms (2015, 2018, March 2020 crash, 2022). It's the "logarithmic regression" anchor.
How to read the zones together: BTC + ETH both in breach or deep breach → broad bottom confirmation. Alts breaching while BTC holds above → not the bottom yet (alts lead fake-outs, BTC leads real ones). Weekly RSI under 30 and drawdown deeper than 70% add conviction.
Role in the stack: Tier 1 tells you when (valuation), Tier 2 tells you how strong (behavior), Cross-Asset tells you how broad — is the bottom market-wide or a BTC-only washout? You want all three aligned before maximum-conviction accumulation.
Post-ETF replacement layer for legacy MVRV-Z. Built on the ARK Invest x Glassnode Cointime Economics framework (August 2023). These metrics exclude lost/dormant coins from valuation calculations, giving a cleaner picture of active investor behavior — exactly the distortion that broke MVRV-Z post-2024.
AVIV Ratio (Active-Value-to-Investor-Value): the paper's primary post-ETF valuation signal. Long-term mean is consistently ~1.0, making it a true mean-reversion anchor unlike MVRV-Z which has been compressed by institutional realized cap inflation.
Bands: <0.55 extreme undervaluation · 0.55–0.75 deep accumulation · 0.75–1.00 accumulation (BUY) · 1.00–1.50 mid bull · 1.50–2.50 late bull · >2.50 cycle top.
Liveliness / Vaultedness: Liveliness = coinblocks destroyed / coinblocks created. Falling liveliness + rising vaultedness = LTHs hoarding old coins (BULLISH). Rising = LTHs distributing aged supply (BEARISH).
Realized Loss: total $ value of BTC sold at a loss. Paper rule: sustained <$25M/day = capitulation exhaustion (sellers gone, bottom near).
CDD (Coin Days Destroyed, supply-adjusted): measures how aggressively old coins are being moved. High = LTH distribution. Useful for detecting tops.
Honest backtest. For each major cycle inflection since 2015, this table shows what the composite framework would have scored using the exact same logic that's live today, applied retroactively to Glassnode data as of that date. The scoring pipeline runs via Time Machine mode (compute_cycle_phase(as_of_date=...)), so every MVRV/NUPL/Puell/SOPR/AVIV reading is the actual historical value on that day, not an estimate.
How to read the accuracy label:
What this table is not: it is NOT a future-prediction promise. Past performance ≠ future results. The framework has been tightened post-2022 (e.g., NUPL threshold lowered from <0 to <−0.15) which means some historical scores are what the current ruleset would have produced, not what the rules at that time were.
What to take from it: the framework has 4/5 exact calls on major bottoms/tops over 10 years, one "good" (FTX), one correct negative (May 2022 Luna — framework correctly said "not a bottom" and price kept falling). The genuine misses: COVID was too fast to register as 4/4 confluence, and the 2025 post-ETF cycle top scored Early Markup when it was actually a distribution zone. Know what the framework catches and what it doesn't.
| Date | Event | Price | Phase (pos/100) | T1 | MVRV | NUPL | AVIV | 180d move | Accuracy |
|---|
Rolling pairwise correlation between the 4-layer framework's representative indicators over the last 90 days using daily log-returns. Shows which layers actually move together vs which are structurally orthogonal.
Why this matters: the framework's edge depends on orthogonal layers. If L1 Macro, L2 Cycle, L3 On-Chain, and L4 Execution all moved in lockstep, the composite would be no better than any single indicator. When correlations are LOW, the disagreement itself is information — a +8 BUY signal with low cross-layer correlation means 4 independent lenses all agree, which is rare and high-conviction. A +8 BUY with everything correlated 0.95 means you're really reading one signal four times.
How to read: darker cells = stronger correlation (same direction), amber = inverse correlation, near-zero = orthogonal. The right column shows each indicator's average absolute correlation with the others — low values = most orthogonal = most useful as independent confirmation.
Expected structure: price-derived on-chain metrics (AVIV/NUPL/MVRV-Z) will always be tightly coupled with BTC price (0.9+) — they're derivatives of price. The real orthogonality test is between macro (DXY, SPX) and execution (Funding) versus the on-chain stack. Funding near 0 correlation across the board = execution layer is doing its job as an independent lens.
Daily timeline of the composite Bottom Proximity score (0–100%). Each point is the score at the daily glassnode pipeline run. Threshold reference lines: 50% (mid bear), 65% (late bear), 80% (bottom zone).
How to read: a rising trend means evidence is building toward a cycle bottom. Crossings into the 65%+ zone are the strongest historical buy windows. Logging started today; the chart will accumulate one new point per day.
Time-based framework: where BTC sits in the 4-year halving calendar, purely from days-since-halving. It ignores current market metrics.
Backtested boundaries (days post-halving): 0–480 markup, 480–560 distribution danger (historical top window), 560–700 early bear, 700–900 mid bear, 900–1100 late bear (typical bottom window), 1100–1460 pre-halving accumulation.
How to read: the needle is today's position on the cycle calendar. Left half = risk-on regime, right half = risk-off / accumulation. Use it as a positioning overlay on the Tier 1 / Tier 2 / Cross-Asset panels below — a bottom signal inside days 900–1100 carries far more weight than the same signal during distribution danger.
Don't confuse with Bottom Proximity (KPI): that's an evidence score from live metrics. This panel is the calendar. When they agree → high confidence; when they diverge → either the bottom is still ahead, or this cycle runs shallower than history.
Composite thermometer for BTC blending valuation (MVRV, NUPL), momentum (price vs moving averages), derivatives (funding, OI), and on-chain activity into a single 0–100 score. 0 = capitulation, 100 = euphoric overheat.
Zones: 0–20 capitulation, 20–40 cool, 40–60 neutral, 60–80 warm, 80–100 overheat.
How to use it: a "warm/overheat" reading while Post-Halving Regime sits in distribution-danger is a late-cycle top warning. A "cool/capitulation" reading during the 900–1100 day bottom window is the most powerful accumulation signal we track. Expand components ▾ to see which inputs are driving the score.
Pre-committed exit plan for the next cycle top — a commit-in-advance checklist so you don't freeze in euphoria. Every value below is computed live from the current halving calendar and live Glassnode Realized Price; nothing is hardcoded to a specific year or price level.
How to read the tags:
+480–560d — means "480 to 560 days after the next halving". This is the historical ATH window: in the 2015, 2018, and 2022 cycles, BTC printed its cycle top ~16–18 months (~480–560 days) after each halving. So Distribution window = next_halving_date + [480, 560] days. The dates rebuild automatically whenever the halving date updates — right now: Apr 22, 2028 → Aug 14, 2029 to Nov 2, 2029.
RP × 3.0–5.5 — means "live Realized Price multiplied by the historical peak-MVRV range". Pre-2024 cycles peaked at MVRV 7×–15×; post-ETF "diminishing extremes" puts the next peak at 3.0×–5.5× RP. Target = RP × [3.0, 5.5], so it slides as RP moves daily.
const — pure backtest constant with no live input. MVRV-Z sell zone (>2.5–3.5), NUPL distribution zone (>0.55–0.65), and low-vol-at-ATH (<4%) are outputs from the v2.0 research backtest on the 2015/2018/2022 tops. They only change when someone re-runs the backtest with new cycle data — not daily.
Rows with no tag (Days to window, Next halving) are fully live countdowns — they tick forward every day from the current date.
How to use: when live MVRV Z-Score crosses above 2.5 inside the distribution window, start selling regardless of narrative. Pair with Cycle Phase panel reading "Distribution" — if both align, execute.
